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Tuesday's match between Greece and the Czech Republic has huge implications poland greece betting preview goal both sides poland greece betting preview goal terms of their chances to advance to the knockout stages of the European Championship. Greece was able to come away with a draw in its opening match against Poland in Warsaw, despite playing the majority of the match a man down. Poland greece betting preview goal Polish side looked in control, and it seemed they would start the tournament off with a win, but substitute Dimitris Salpingidis found the back of the net in the 51st minute to tie the game at one. The Czech Republic was taken behind the woodshed by Russia in its first match, falling in embarrassing fashion They'll certainly need a better effort if they want to avoid being all but mathematically eliminated after their first two games. Sokratis Papastathopoulos is suspended for this one after being sent off against Poland on a controversial call, to say the least. Avraam Papadopoulos, another key defensive contributor for the Greeks, is out of the tournament with a knee injury.

Reddit mma betting forums successful sports betting

Reddit mma betting forums

And litecoin verification does not work for me and many other people. You have to verify your picture ID which is sketchy enough as it is and it doesn't even work. It does make it a lot more tense and entertaining. Back when I bet, I never bet on a fight where I hadn't watched both fighters at least 5 times. I thought I was going to open this thread and it was just going to say "Don't. I've been betting UFC since the start of last year after following the sport for a decade.

I agree with your advice on not betting on who you like as fighters. Betting with your heart like that is an easy way to being a losing sports better. This year I'm , so batting similar percentages. I never bet more than a "unit" on each fight. I wish I was better at handicapping fights.

I think that is where the real money is made. Finding a line or lines and exploiting them. My "system" that I've created is a weird Frankenstein spreadsheet that I input numbers in and it tells me which side to bet if there is a clear bet to be made. I noticed trends in the match making in did research for a year while tracking results and came up with a system based solely on numbers. Sometimes I bet a fight because my system says so and I personally like the other fighter.

I've found betting on the undercard is more consistent. OSP v Latifi for example. On these fights you'll likely be making picks involving hot prospects making their UFC debuts. The key here is to research the fighter and watch tape. Mark Hunt says he's the hardest hitter he's ever faced and he won the belt on the regional circuit with a one-elbow first round KO?

Who does the promotion want to win? Looking at the fights that come together, it's obvious when the UFC wants a fighter to win. They don't care about every single fight, but if Sage Northcutt is fighting, they're gonna do what they can to give him a favorable matchup. Perfect example, McKenzie Dern is debuting next week. She's a BJJ ace and people have wanted her in the promotion for a long time, shes got sex appeal, skills, and is young with a high skill ceiling.

So shes getting a fight that on paper seems like a decent one in Ashley Yoder. Yoder is known for her submission game and grappling but is a purple belt to Dern's black belt. Dern is a highly decorated black belt as well, not just anybody. This is the type of fight to look out for if you were to make a sleeper pick on Yoder. If she's going up against someone the promotion wants to win, there's a reason so always be weary picking these fights. Where is the event being held?

Put as much weight into this one as you want. I've found it to be most pronounced in Brazilian shows, but usually the UFC will book some hometown guys wherever in the world they happen to be. Look for tells of possible picks by identifying all the hometown fighters. Fighters don't like to lose at home, and the crowd doesn't particularity enjoy it either. It also can add on motivation for a fighter you may otherwise find questionable. This can work for or against the hometown guy it seems like, very rarely a gray area.

Perry and Saunders just lost in Florida, it was supposed to be a big coming out party for Mike Perry, too. So similarly to the tip above, this is something you'd do sparingly and with the thought "this could mean absolutely nothing regarding the outcome of the fight".

But you never know. Don't believe the hype. Go with the pick that has the least chance to realistically lose, play into what Draftkings awards points for, picking for the knockout is almost never as safe as picking for the dominant decision. This is kind of as it sounds. I wanted to bet on Platinum sooo badly last night, but I thought about it and removed a day or two before the fights. Jessica Andrade was available for less money. On Draftkings, you gotta take the scoring system into account.

DK awards 10 pts for a knockdown, 90 pts for a first round win, and. They also award points for advancing, takedowns and slams are 5 pts each, as are reversals and sweeps. So you look at first glance and say, "well Platinum has a great knockdown rate, has only ever won by knockout, and has fight-ending power for the full 15, plus he's an exciting guy so I'll pick him.

But then I thought about Andrade's fighting style and how she matched up to Torres. It just seemed like she would be able to walk through Tecia's volume striking approach. And Andrade could take down a horse, let alone anyone in WSW division. Thinking Tecia was tough enough to hang 15 with Andrade but would be dominated statisically, I went with Andrade.

She ended up scoring fantasy points on DK roughly the same amount of points I got from Renau and Kellehers wins combined. As much as it can seem like Draftkings just rewards knockouts, you learn as you go that in fact knockouts dont always translate to good fantasy value. This specific situation highlights that perfectly. Identify those sleeper picks. This only really applies to Draftkings users but why not. Look at some of the cheapest fighters on the card and do your best to narrow your choices down to people with the most realistic chances just using basic statistics.

For example, I had two picks last night I considered 'sleepers'. If you've used a salary cap betting system before you understand that I need to pick one to two underdogs to afford the favorites I believe will score me the most points. My two 'sleepers' last night were Marion Renau and Brian Kelleher. I knew Renau, which helped, dont recommend picking blind or even after just watching a couple vids.

Lo and behold I got lucky and she dropped McMann and finished her in the second. I picked Kelleher mainly because he really impressed with both of his wins last year, and noted he had finished every win since joining the UFC. He was able to cleanly decison Barao, I thought I was gonna win a ton of money, but betting on almost the whole main card came to bite me because Latifi starched OSP, but I still came out tripling my bet. If I had followed my own rules and made some better decisions about undercard fights I could have walked away with several hundred in winnings.

Happy betting! Also, this sounds like a warning on a lottery commercial, but set a stopping point if you continue to just lose money. You can play free pick'em for a while to practice. Also don't bet if it gets in the way of you enjoying the sport, remember why you started in the first place. I just like spotting the big payouts. They come around rarely but make them count when they present themselves.

Look for org changes Seeing ronda get hit by battered tate, how mcgregor rarely faces larger framed durable opponents were flags I noticed to bet against them. In the past I was always waiting for Jones to fight someone like Forrest Griffin See how competitive Gustaffason was against jones I was wrong in that case but same principle. Womens division was prime for betting in its infancy very similar to when there was an influx of Pride guys getting into the ufc. Its not so new anymore but look out for things like that.

Am I being an idiot? I know nothing about betting. Never seen a break down, but tapolgy is where hard core fans are leaning, so trains have less steam This is something I really want to start. Does anyone use BetDSI? Chael's videos have engrained it in my head and they offer a triple deposit amount with Chael's promo code. Is it any Good? If not what is? I live in the US. If you're going to bet, just use decimal odds, much more simple to calculate winnings, and just easier to judge parity among the competitors.

I usually only put 20 down so not a big loss but it just shows how hard it is to pick in this sport because I usually bet on who i think which usually lean towards the favourites, but all it takes is a punch, and very rarely do all the favourites win.

Always a few under-dogs, and I guess theyr the ones should be looking for. I've won on Rose ITD, that korean girl who got gifted a decision in australiia, angela hill, randa markos, few other girls too, there are a lot of bad matchups, likely decisions, and very poor skill.

Key part of my comment here. However, the vast majority of WMMA fights are close and go to a decision, meaning judges can fuck it up. You said it yourself "likely decisions, and very poor skill" How is that reliable? Your comment kinda proves my point, if 'that korean girl' got gifted the decision then you got lucky, the judges went your way. But according to your wording she lost.

So all the people who actually picked right , lost money. That's way more likely to happen with WMMA in my opinion. I also was on the short end of a few decisions that night too, so it even'd out. I make loads betting on Women's fights. You often get really good underdogs. I always lol at people who say 'don't bet WMMA'.

It's still just MMA. I think they mean more like: 'I don't know much about women fighters'. I always bet medium and larger underdogs. Just about the only fights I bet. I am not big into betting so that helps keep is few and far between. I like winning a big chunk two or three times a year off like 4 or 5 bets. Betting fights is too stressful to always be active. Too many ups and downs for me. I use MMA betting to hedge against emotions of fighter favouritism.

For example i bet on Rockhold to beat Romero because if Romero wins, i am happy, but if he loses, then i make money. Also I can add to this: A great starting way to bet that allows big and small bets while also really making you root for a bunch of guys you normally wouldn't have heard of is draftkings the app. You pick 6 fighters in your lineup and all 6 of them contribute to your fantasy team that will earn you points based on their performance.

I pretty much only bet when I'm confident in an underdog's skills, and when I feel the oddsmakers are drastically underestimating the underdog. I can't say my luck has been overall very good though, I tend to get fucked over by random injuries.

I thought he was starting to get the best of Aldo around the 3rd round too. If that fight ever gets rebooked I'll probably bet on KZ again. I have a house pick each event most likley , and i have less likley picks but bigger odds. So if i have a bad day the house pick usually keeps me in the profit. Whenever there's a favorite your confident in, look at prop bets. Some fighters only have one path to victory so you can add extra value by picking the prop.

A lot of the time that number is almost the same as the money line though, so it's not really worth going from ML to KO on Francis Ngannou, cuz in some freak exchange, he might land a sub and your bet is fucked. Lots of good books on sportsbetting. Read a couple first before betting.

Betting on linemovement is a much better strategy usually than trying to figure out odds. You have to realize that the biggest bookies have experts to make these lines and they get paid very well for it. Smaller bookies just copy lines and make them worse. So you have to have really good inside knowledge to make profitable bets on starting lines, however betting on linemovement is a lot easier and very profitable. He's got a gambling diary he's kept since he was 18, he's won about k in his life but he's down 37k overall.

It's not worth it, the longer you do it the more you'll lose. You're better off putting the money you want to gamble in a jar, after a few months open it and go on holiday or buy something to make your life better. A few quid might not seem much each week but over time it really adds up.

Where do you bet on fights live at? I bet on Bovada and they close the lines as soon as the fight starts. That way, if I have to see one of my favorite fighters lose, at least I make money. I'd like to see a graph of someone who bet on every fighter Brenden Schuab said would win, I would guess the results would be very up and down.

If you lost a bet. Double down to make it back n then some. If you lose that refill account and triple up. You gotta win sometime right right. So, what online sites offer fights? I mean, more than just the headliners? I've searched the bulk of the betting sites and found only two or three fights available for betting.

Between yesterday's card and UFC in October, there are five UFC cards with dozens of fights on each card, yet the betting sites only offer 2 or three fights off of only one or two cards if they offer UFC fights at all. Is this the norm?

There are literally hundreds of UFC fights going on in the next three months, but I can't find any sites that offer betting on them unless it's just the headliners. Does anyone offer more fights? Something I generally do in big underdog fights is to ask myself how much I would be willing to pay to see the upset if it were guaranteed, then I bet that money on the favorite.

If the favorite wins, I get a bit of money. If the upset happens, it's fine because I lost what I was willing to pay to see that anyways. Never bet on Romero. I legit mean that. I feel like every time I watch him, I come away thinking he's not technically sound, but he then KOs someone.

Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our User Agreement and Privacy Policy. All rights reserved. MMA comments. Want to join? Log in or sign up in seconds. Submit a new link. Submit a new text post. Get an ad-free experience with special benefits, and directly support Reddit. Please review our rules before posting. Welcome to Reddit, the front page of the internet. Become a Redditor and join one of thousands of communities. My first night I won 20 bucks somehow despite not knowing what I was doing, thought I did though, kept betting the same way until I stated learning how much I was doing wrong, like: Betting on fighters I like.

Won't name names but I've lost very often because I bet on a fighter based on who they were, vs. Forcing bets right before the fight starts, just to not be bored it's just a dollar, it's only 2 bucks, I still do this from time to time, hard habit to break, but I almost always lose Betting on fights where you haven't watched both fighters fight before. I've won some on blind bets, but in the long run you're going to lose wayyy more.

Just watch 1 fight of both fighters, then bet. Betting small on a bunch of props, instead of betting on moneyline. Instead of betting Stephens ko, stephens round 4, stephens round 5, just bet Stephens straight. Last night you might have won some, but a lot of times you will end up with a smaller wins if you win 1 prop, lose 2.

Stuff I should have done: Live betting. However I'm not too good at it yet, I'm often hesitant to pull the trigger on live bets, ex. Convert american odds to percentages, and bet based on those percentages. Take advice from other people, sherdog forums have a lot of good advice. Want to add to the discussion? Post a comment! Create an account. Chael kept his word and made him tap? You will also find the occasional thread dedicated to eSports betting and other niche sports.

If you like to bet on soccer , you are in luck. This is one of the best betting subreddits of all and it is all football, all the time. The sub is highly active and has a friendly community that shares everything from big scores to the latest betting tips. Other topics of discussion include everything from betting tips to people asking how in the heck in-play betting sites are able to keep track of so many games happening all at once.

This is not the largest or most active betting subreddit, but new reviews are posted just often enough to keep it fairly up to date and very useful. Anyone can visit to leave a review, and reviews are grouped together into one thread for each betting site. The reviews here are not very in-depth, but they offer the advantage of not being written by people who receive compensation from those same books. These are some of the most organic sportsbook reviews you will find on the internet.

There are two major eSports betting communities on Reddit. One is dedicated to Counter-Strike and the other is dedicated to Dota 2. Both are full of useful information for upcoming matches, strategies for smart betting and recommendations of where to bet on eSports online.

New threads are started each day for upcoming matches in addition to a daily thread for general CSGO betting discussion. The daily betting threads normally get upwards of comments each while the threads dedicated to specific matches are good for 10 or more comments at a time. You will also find the occasional general strategies thread and threads discussing which betting sites are the best for CS:GO.

In all, this subreddit is chock-full of useful information. Dota2Betting is not nearly as busy as some of the other subreddits discussed here, but it is still worth browsing if you bet on Dota2. You can expect to find at least two or three new threads each day. The Dota 2 subreddit consists primarily of daily predictions threads along with the occasional thread for individual matches or big events.

The Dota2 betting subreddit has lost a good deal of its activity in the wake of the Valve skins betting scandal that resulted in the closure of many skins betting sites, but you can still find a good deal of discussion and commentary useful for regular real-money betting.

The sidebar also contains a number of links that you will find handy for statistics and betting research. Horse racing betting is a bit of a slow topic at Reddit, but there are still a couple horse racing betting subreddits that you may find helpful. The general horseracing subreddit is fairly active considering it has fewer than 4, subscribers.

New threads are started daily, although the discussion does not often exceed 5 or 10 comments. Bigger horse racing betting events such as the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes do result in a significant amount of discussion however. This subreddit is open to all horse racing discussion, but it definitely has an emphasis on races held in the USA.

Threads started in this subreddit cover a broad range of topics including everything from upcoming race previews to basic handicapping questions to people posting screenshots of winning tickets. This subreddit is the least active of all we have discussed today, but the occasional news article and daily tips threads do offer some interesting and useful commentary that will help you in your handicapping endeavors.

For the most part, sports betting is a long term game with small wins and losses that add up over time to form a trend. Hopefully you win more than you lose, but generally sports betting is not a high volatility endeavor. That is, you do not often see huge swings in either direction. Daily fantasy sports leagues are immensely more profitable than season long leagues for a couple of reasons. The most obvious is one of simple volume.

Open this week. Skip to content.

GAMBLING AND BETTING ACTIVITIES FOR THE ELDERLY

Semi Ojeleye and Payton Pritchard became the first Celtics duo in franchise history to accomplish this impressive feat. After LaMelo Ball did not see the court in the fourth quarter vs. Memphis, head coach James Borrego explained the reasoning for his benching. Make up to break up? ESPN thinks that while the Cowboys are saying all the right things, in the end it will be another failed negotiating session.

That something was captured by NFL Films microphones. Dak Prescott's franchise tag drama continues in Dallas; the free agency period could also bring cornerback and defensive line help. Serena Williams advanced to the Australian Open fourth round, where she will play her first top opponent in 17 months. Alex Bowman and William Byron were slated to lead the Daytona field to green but that's in danger following Thursday night's qualifying races. Bowman had an engine problem in the first mile race and, if his motor needs to be changed, he'll forfeit Sunday's pole.

By Dave Zangaro. Read full article. Latest Stories. The Independent. Associated Press. Sixers Wire. Colts Wire. NBC Sports Boston. Lonzo Wire. You have to spot how those hype trains were ceated and how real they are. Most people, even in the mma media, just have no clue how to assess how good a fighter actually is and will follow whatever the UFC tells them.

That's how most of the media picked Yair to win against Edgar and how they are hyping up guys like Perry and Northcutt, even though they are at best marginally better than when they first came to the UFC. Would have netted over a grand for bucks. I would not follow this. Many recent ones derailed but for most part they beat the aging veterans. Bankroll management is important, quite like playing poker. Bet for value EV.

Re-read OP's point again starting at "convert american odds" above, and google to find a good "expected value calculator". Sometimes the fighter to bet on is the fighter you think will lose. Torres was great value bet at those odds.

I think she was there smarter fighter but Jessica was just too strong. Learning how to hedge outcomes is also a great tool. Understand the top possibilities for how a fight's going to go, and make sure you've got hedges on. I had Miocic ML and the u1. It's surprising how often you can get effective hedges like that, too. Dillashaw against Garbrandt with the u4.

Say what you want about him but I always win off his fights. No one's beating him, juiced or not. I think it's more important to actually learn what expected value is and how to calculate it yourself. It's not that difficult to learn and understand, but it's an extremely important concept in life- especially anytime you are making bets. For fucking real. A lot of the time he has his assistant read the odds and just picks a narrative to back up the betting favorite.

My first rule of sports betting that complete beginners always igonore, if I think the odds are pretty much right, don't bet. Always go for value. Use the percentage calculator like OP suggested. I barely bet anymore, but the best practice I learned is when you have done your initial analysis and have a pick in mind: go back and review and look exclusively for your winners weaknesses and your losers strengths, then re-evaluate. Your mind is always playing tricks on you, and some subconscious bias makes it so even after "impartial" analysis you could be making a decision based on who you want to win, or how you want to see the fight go.

This applies even for fighters you don't think you have any opinion about. When i first started betting I realized that most of my losses in fights that were close on paper resulted from me ignoring or downplaying somewhat obvious strengths and weaknesses during analysis, even though i believed my analysis was thorough. What happens is when you are reviewing the matchups for the first time, your mind makes an initial opinion of it. Once you start tape study, you might notice a couple nice things during the first few fights, and a narrative for how the fight will go starts structuring itself in your head, and things you see that go against this narrative will often get downplayed, while points that fit the narrative will be given more weight.

This is why its very important to go back and watch again, there is ALOT going on at the same time in fights and its impossible to see it all with only 1 watch. He keeps track of all movement, you just place your bets and watch your money grow, or in my case, go down the drain. Come by, say hi, and give it your best shot. It makes watching the cards that much more interesting. Thanks for posting this man, just sub'd to it and can't wait to start betting going forward.

We've been hardcore fans since junior high when Liddell, Rashad, Rampage, Tito, etc. Turns out, we actually had a pretty good knack for it. I wouldn't call myself a professional just yet, but semi-professional is more than fair. I'd call my buddy a pro. My buddy is next level, he makes more from betting than he does from his day job which is nothing to scoff at, I don't think he makes 6 figures but he's close to it. I'd have to say my most important rule is to be familiar with both fighters if you're going to make a bet.

If you're intention is to actually make real money in the long term not just place a few bets here and there and maybe go up a little beer money now and then , bankroll management is the next most important thing. If you properly manage your bankroll and are successful in picking fights, you should be able to turn a profit long term. Fading the public is a great idea: mmajunkie does a user poll for each of the fights on every main card that I find useful.

Don't chase your losses: everyone will get hot and everyone will get cold. Just stick to your game plan and your cold streak will eventually end. People get in trouble when they start hammering certain fights in an effort to recoup prior losses. Check those threads before placing your bets. To make money, you have to start with a decent bankroll. How the hell are you two not getting limited? But, yeah. I'm familiar with you and your picks, I forgot about you when I made that comment because I haven't seen you post picks on Reddit in a while.

I'd definitely call you one of the best cappers on here though. As far as not getting limited, we use VPNs and we have multiple accounts at pretty much all the major books, so our bets for a given card are almost never placed with only one book or only one account. But you're right, it's not easy to maintain success and not get limited. I definitely don't recommend playing the VPN game unless you really, really know what you're doing though because it's very easy to get caught and get your account s locked.

That's why the link you give in each post is worthless. You are not putting those bets on those sites. Anyone who knows anything about profitable gambling knows that the hardest part is actually getting the bets on. You would have been restricted on those sites and would only be able to get cents on if that. I have an account with paddypower that is reduced to less than one dollar per boxing bet, boylesports closed my account and bet have reduced me to 3 dollars a bet and are holding more than dollars in my account and refusing to pay out until I provide documents I already provided.

These bookies are pure scum and have people who have the job of looking through accounts and restricting winning customers. So clearly your overall profit and roi are not legit are they? For example I presume you are taking dodson over munhoz at the weekend and have put up a bet at 1. I put a lot of my personal action on through Betfair, which doesn't limit since it's an exchange instead. If you want a new account to last, it needs to be one with 'history', which means either leaning on unsuccessful friends for their old accounts or intentionally setting up a small-stakes losing record.

I've got friends who work in the Australian betting industry and there's a ton of flags for it, such as accounts owned by Females instantly getting 4x the scrutiny. I've got Dodson 1. I've hit openers like Arlovski-Albini at 3. If you know how to use a VPN and have the means to, for lack of a better word, launder money, it's actually very easy to be giving that ass pounding to the books instead of taking it.

Say you open an account on Bovada using your own normal IP I don't particularly like them, but a lot of people know them so I'll use them as an example. You go up maybe 8 or 10K and get hit with a limit. Ok, no problem. Cash out. Now, log into your VPN service and open a new account using say a California server, which will make Bovada think your account is out of California. Place your bets and carry on as normal. You make some more money and get hit with a limit again. Again, making a new account is no problem because your VPN service literally has 40 or 50 servers you can use, but now you have the issue of withdrawing, because you obviously can't have them send a check to the address where you had your previous check sent.

They'd realize it immediately and lock you out for rule violations. Same goes if you had your winnings deposited into a bank account. This is were Bitcoin is incredibly useful. If you use Bitcoin rather than paper currency, you can always make a new wallet to withdraw to. But, if you're using a site that doesn't accept Bitcoin, it's a much more difficult problem to solve.

I obviously can't go into detail on how to manipulate identity and the banking system, but if you do a little research it's not ridiculously complicated. LLCs are useful. I have accounts everywhere, and I mean everywhere. I bet on the guy I want to lose against my favourite fighters. That way if they lose, I can wipe my tears with the money won. If they win I dont give a damn about the money I lost and I'm just ecstatic.

Also I only play with the money Ive won. So I started off with 50 dollars got my winnings to a couple hundred and thats the only money I play with. I also put parlays for fun on who I think will win. Would have won a couple grand at UFC I was 5 of 6. Bisping took that all away.

I started off betting on MMA last April. I've been doing well lately , but I only bet small amounts. The main thing I had to learn was don't look to bet on fights based on who you think is going to win. Look at the odds and think of it as bargain hunting. Don't make bets based on who you're rooting for.

For example, I expected Perry to win last night but I bet against him because he was at If you are going to bet on someone who is that heavy of a favorite you better be real certain they're going to win. Most of the time it's hard to scrutinize the odds and see anything obviously wrong with them.

If you look at the odds for an event and think "Yep, that's about right Sometimes something will jump out at you, like Perry at Stipe as an underdog vs Nganou was an obvious pick for me. Sometimes a fighter will have one big loss and everyone suddenly thinks they're shot or have nothing to offer. In other words, bet based on the expected value. Yoel vs rockhold was great value recently.

Nitrogen is solid, although for mma they aren't the best. Bovada has the most props and fights, but also shittier payout. This is not the only instance, I've seen several examples of fraud not just 5dimes. Bottom line is avoid using CC, and instead try to use btc. Though, I think I've read that 5dimes sometimes asks for user's personal information to "confirm your identity" or something like that.

And then they'll sell your information. When you bet, can you just bet on who you think will win? Or do you have to bet on how they win and what round they win? You can just bet on who you think will win. And more experienced betters are welcome to correct me if I'm wrong, but straight up betting on who will win is the most profitable way to go about it.

Can I bet PayPal money? Because bitcoin fees are very expensive. And litecoin verification does not work for me and many other people. You have to verify your picture ID which is sketchy enough as it is and it doesn't even work. It does make it a lot more tense and entertaining. Back when I bet, I never bet on a fight where I hadn't watched both fighters at least 5 times. I thought I was going to open this thread and it was just going to say "Don't. I've been betting UFC since the start of last year after following the sport for a decade.

I agree with your advice on not betting on who you like as fighters. Betting with your heart like that is an easy way to being a losing sports better. This year I'm , so batting similar percentages. I never bet more than a "unit" on each fight.

I wish I was better at handicapping fights. I think that is where the real money is made. Finding a line or lines and exploiting them. My "system" that I've created is a weird Frankenstein spreadsheet that I input numbers in and it tells me which side to bet if there is a clear bet to be made. I noticed trends in the match making in did research for a year while tracking results and came up with a system based solely on numbers. Sometimes I bet a fight because my system says so and I personally like the other fighter.

I've found betting on the undercard is more consistent. OSP v Latifi for example. On these fights you'll likely be making picks involving hot prospects making their UFC debuts. The key here is to research the fighter and watch tape. Mark Hunt says he's the hardest hitter he's ever faced and he won the belt on the regional circuit with a one-elbow first round KO? Who does the promotion want to win? Looking at the fights that come together, it's obvious when the UFC wants a fighter to win.

They don't care about every single fight, but if Sage Northcutt is fighting, they're gonna do what they can to give him a favorable matchup. Perfect example, McKenzie Dern is debuting next week. She's a BJJ ace and people have wanted her in the promotion for a long time, shes got sex appeal, skills, and is young with a high skill ceiling. So shes getting a fight that on paper seems like a decent one in Ashley Yoder.

Yoder is known for her submission game and grappling but is a purple belt to Dern's black belt. Dern is a highly decorated black belt as well, not just anybody. This is the type of fight to look out for if you were to make a sleeper pick on Yoder.

If she's going up against someone the promotion wants to win, there's a reason so always be weary picking these fights. Where is the event being held? Put as much weight into this one as you want. I've found it to be most pronounced in Brazilian shows, but usually the UFC will book some hometown guys wherever in the world they happen to be.

Look for tells of possible picks by identifying all the hometown fighters. Fighters don't like to lose at home, and the crowd doesn't particularity enjoy it either. It also can add on motivation for a fighter you may otherwise find questionable. This can work for or against the hometown guy it seems like, very rarely a gray area.

Perry and Saunders just lost in Florida, it was supposed to be a big coming out party for Mike Perry, too. So similarly to the tip above, this is something you'd do sparingly and with the thought "this could mean absolutely nothing regarding the outcome of the fight". But you never know. Don't believe the hype. Go with the pick that has the least chance to realistically lose, play into what Draftkings awards points for, picking for the knockout is almost never as safe as picking for the dominant decision.

This is kind of as it sounds. I wanted to bet on Platinum sooo badly last night, but I thought about it and removed a day or two before the fights. Jessica Andrade was available for less money. On Draftkings, you gotta take the scoring system into account. DK awards 10 pts for a knockdown, 90 pts for a first round win, and.

They also award points for advancing, takedowns and slams are 5 pts each, as are reversals and sweeps. So you look at first glance and say, "well Platinum has a great knockdown rate, has only ever won by knockout, and has fight-ending power for the full 15, plus he's an exciting guy so I'll pick him. But then I thought about Andrade's fighting style and how she matched up to Torres. It just seemed like she would be able to walk through Tecia's volume striking approach.

And Andrade could take down a horse, let alone anyone in WSW division. Thinking Tecia was tough enough to hang 15 with Andrade but would be dominated statisically, I went with Andrade. She ended up scoring fantasy points on DK roughly the same amount of points I got from Renau and Kellehers wins combined. As much as it can seem like Draftkings just rewards knockouts, you learn as you go that in fact knockouts dont always translate to good fantasy value.

This specific situation highlights that perfectly. Identify those sleeper picks. This only really applies to Draftkings users but why not. Look at some of the cheapest fighters on the card and do your best to narrow your choices down to people with the most realistic chances just using basic statistics.

For example, I had two picks last night I considered 'sleepers'.

This article serves as our ultimate guide to UFC betting.

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Each way betting explained f10 Precisely the skill a very basic MMA skill that Rousey lacked. This makes it easier to bet on a single outcome reddit mma betting forums, compared to football betting, which usually has three possible outcomes which makes betting a lot more complicated. Betting fights is too stressful to always be active. Fuck you odds. Anyone who knows anything about profitable gambling knows that the hardest part is actually getting the bets on.
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